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Subject: Making the data switch from open outcry to electronic markets

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jfrance
Posts:5

06-16-2006 12:31 PM Alert 
Any ideas on the best way to make the switch from open outcry to electronically traded markets? Let me explain: T-bonds now are basically traded electronically. The ECBT has significantly different trading hours...for all practical purposes it's a 24 hour market. How does one go about backtesting...or even more specifically, handling data, in this situation. There is no meaningful open or close to the ECBT...yet the majority of the price data history has traditionally defined open/close. This has a significant impact on the development and testing of a system. For a specific example, the Report Day setup for trading T-Bonds becomes a problem. You really can't enter a trade on the open after the report...because the ECBT is already open when the report comes out. Likewise, you can't exit on the open on the following Friday...because the Friday session opened at 4pm on Thursday. Furthermore, doesn't this make the entire Report Day setup invalid as it stands in it's current form? Are we now going to have to go to intraday systems and setups to trade these 23 hour electronic markets? Thoughts? Corrections? Ideas? Thanks, Jerry
murray
Posts:431

06-16-2006 1:00 PM Alert 

   This change is a lot like the addition of the Mini-SP500 to the mix. I think one change it will have is that a larger percent of the movement from day to day will occur between the traditional close 3:00 pm and open 8:20 am, you will have larger gaps because of overnight trading. I don't think it will totally change things because it is human nature to trade day session, if that what you are use to. We have had overseas trading of US Bonds for years and the report day patterns still work.

  The current patterns I use we buy or sell before the open when the report is released, the day before open or even the night before at the close. This means that this 24 hr market effect should not totally change these report day patterns.

   The question you need to ask is will this change who trades the bonds during a given time period and what does the volume profile look like.  I am not saying that some systems that use to work will not run into problems but , the answer is not easy and we really need to see how it works out. Going back to the SP500 example, when the SP500 cut the big point value from $500.00 to $250.00 many of my systems continued to work but my orginal Taylor system stopped working because of the change in what percentage of the range occured from open-close versus overnight ,as in the fact that smaller player could trade this market with less fear.  This is why I am saying these changes in the bond market are really going to be system dependent.

 

 

  

jfrance
Posts:5

06-16-2006 2:07 PM Alert 
Yes...I see what you mean. One of the things that prompted me to consider this is the fact that I can no longer place an order for the US contracts online. I have to use the ZB contracts (electronic). So, if I want to place a market order for the traditional 'open'...I can't do it online unless I sit there and wait for 8:20 to roll around. That prompted me to consider the other ramifications of these types of changes. Perhaps there will be new inefficiencies that can become our "edges" due to these types of changes... Thanks for the reply Murray!
jbts
Posts:11

06-16-2006 9:14 PM Alert 
Perhaps this might be of help:
1) Continue system development using the open outcry data;
2) Once you have achieved a system that is ready for actual trading, continue to use the open outcry data to determine your trading price entry and exit points;
3) Enter trading orders in the electronic market based on the open outcry price action, but with the trading orders placed and executed in the electronic market during the open outcry hours only.

For example, for 30 Year T-Bonds, use US data in your system to determine the entry and exit points, and have your resulting ZB orders restricted to US trading hours.
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