This change is a lot like the addition of the Mini-SP500 to the mix. I think one change it will have is that a larger percent of the movement from day to day will occur between the traditional close 3:00 pm and open 8:20 am, you will have larger gaps because of overnight trading. I don't think it will totally change things because it is human nature to trade day session, if that what you are use to. We have had overseas trading of US Bonds for years and the report day patterns still work.
The current patterns I use we buy or sell before the open when the report is released, the day before open or even the night before at the close. This means that this 24 hr market effect should not totally change these report day patterns.
The question you need to ask is will this change who trades the bonds during a given time period and what does the volume profile look like. I am not saying that some systems that use to work will not run into problems but , the answer is not easy and we really need to see how it works out. Going back to the SP500 example, when the SP500 cut the big point value from $500.00 to $250.00 many of my systems continued to work but my orginal Taylor system stopped working because of the change in what percentage of the range occured from open-close versus overnight ,as in the fact that smaller player could trade this market with less fear. This is why I am saying these changes in the bond market are really going to be system dependent.
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